• The 2024 US presidential election features a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with swing states playing a crucial role in determining the outcome
• Key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan hold significant electoral votes and are essential for both candidates
• Georgia, a Republican stronghold, has shifted demographics, making it competitive, while Arizona’s changing political landscape presents an opportunity for both
• North Carolina and Nevada are emerging as pivotal battlegrounds, with Harris narrowing the gap in North Carolina
Didacus Malowa, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.
The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most fiercely contested races in recent history.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in several opinion polls.
Unlike states considered traditional safe states for Democratic and Republican party candidates with consistent partisan leanings.
Also known as swing states, battleground states are generally understood to be ones in which voters might reasonably support either the Democratic or Republican candidate.
These states frequently have narrow margins of victory, which might potentially influence how the 2024 presidential election turns out.
With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania has substantial electoral strength and has a track record of supporting both Democrats and Republicans.
Pennsylvania, which was crucial to Trump’s victory in 2016, was regained by Biden in 2020.
Both candidates are vying for support in Pennsylvania due to the state’s sizable working-class and suburban voter base, where topics like healthcare and the economy are important.
The fact that the two candidates are currently within a margin of error in polls highlights how crucial this is for both campaigns.
Another “blue wall” state experiencing party shifts in past elections is Michigan, with 15 electoral votes.
Trump’s surprising victory in Michigan in 2016 brought an end to the Democratic Party’s winning streak that began in 1992.
But Biden’s win here in 2020 demonstrated how strong the Democratic base is in places like Detroit.
While Trump focuses on economic programs targeted at the state’s industrial workers, Harris is concentrating on mobilising suburban and African American voters; two groups that are essential to a Democratic triumph.
Georgia was always a firmly Republican state, but its demographics have shifted dramatically, making it a competitive battleground with 16 electoral votes.
Biden narrowly won Georgia in 2020, the first time a Democrat had captured the state since 1992.
This year’s election is close, with Trump and Harris campaigning hard to woo suburban and minority voters.
Voting rights and economic policies, particularly inflation and the cost of living, are major issues in Georgia.
Arizona has been a major point for both campaigns, with its 11 electoral votes currently considered achievable by either party.
In 2020, President Biden’s victory in Arizona marked a change in the historically Republican bastion.
Both candidates are aggressively campaigning in Arizona, focusing on the state’s expanding Hispanic population, which might be pivotal.
Immigration, healthcare, and public safety are all important issues in the state, and any miscalculation might have a significant impact.
Trump has a modest lead in Arizona, but Harris is polling closely behind, making this state critical to both.
North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes have routinely drawn national attention as both parties compete for control of the Southern state.
Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020, but according to current surveys, Harris has greatly reduced the margin.
North Carolina is a closely contested battleground due to its varied population, which includes a sizable African American minority and an increasing proportion of suburban and college-educated voters.
Nevada’s six electoral votes are less than those of other battleground states, but they are just as important.
The state has skewed Democratic in recent elections, with Hillary Clinton and Biden both winning, but the state remains competitive.
The pandemic significantly impacted Nevada’s economy, which is primarily based on tourism and service industries. Topics such as economic recovery and healthcare remain top priorities for voters.
Harris leads marginally in Nevada, but Trump’s emphasis on economic worries might connect, tipping undecided voters in his favour.
Wisconsin has ten electoral votes and has been closely contested in prior elections.
Trump narrowly won Wisconsin in 2016, but Biden won by a small margin in 2020, making it a focus for both campaigns.
Wisconsin has a distinct voter population that could be influenced by agricultural and economic policies due to its high percentage of rural voters and urban areas like Milwaukee.
Recent surveys show that Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin, but the state is still up for grabs.
The importance of these battleground states cannot be overemphasised.
The United States uses an Electoral College system, which requires a candidate to receive at least 270 out of 538 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Although a candidate may win the popular vote, the distribution of electoral votes in these battleground states determines the outcome.
Winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, known as the “blue wall” states, might assure Harris’ road to victory, whereas success in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina could push Trump over the finish line.…Read more by Didacus Malowa