Hanoi, HCM City among 10 provinces facing declining birth rates

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HANOI: Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are among 10 provinces and municipalities with fertility rates below the national average, the Ministry of Health has said.

The low-fertility list also includes Khanh Hoa, Dong Nai, An Giang, Dong Thap, Vinh Long, Ca Mau, Can Tho and Tay Ninh, the ministry said in draft documents accompanying a proposed national programme on health, population and development for the 2026-2035 period. The ministry has proposed surveys to identify factors influencing decisions to have children and the desired number of children among couples and young people, to develop policies aimed at addressing low birth rates.

The demographic and health surveys are planned for 2027-2028, with follow-up surveys in 2027, 2029 and 2030, the draft says. The surveys would collect household and demographic data, as well as information on reproductive and sexual health, family planning, maternal and child health, fertility and desired family size. The ministry also proposes specialised studies to assess links between population size, fertility and development.

Subproject 1 of the draft programme recommends measures to encourage marriage and childbearing, including premarital courses and education on reproductive and sexual health, pregnancy, childbirth, child-rearing and household financial management for young people preparing to marry. The General Department of Population said low fertility remains the biggest challenge for population policy.

Vietnam’s total fertility rate in 2025 was 1.93 children per woman, below the replacement level, it said, adding that delayed marriage and childbirth, as well as decisions to have fewer or no children, are becoming increasingly common, particularly in cities and low-fertility areas. Policies to encourage couples to have two children remain limited and are largely at the pilot stage, the ministry said.

Prolonged low fertility would affect family size and structure, undermine the ability to maintain a balanced population and workforce, and place long-term pressure on social welfare systems. It could also accelerate population ageing and migration while shrinking the labour force, the draft warns. A 2025 General Statistics Office report,”Population Projections for Vietnam 2024-2074″, forecast continued population growth, albeit at a slower pace, with a peak around 2059.

Under three fertility scenarios for 2024-2074 — low , medium and high — the population would reach about 103.9 million, 114.2 million and 118.5 million, respectively. Annual population growth is projected at 0.66 per cent for 2024-2029 before falling to zero by 2060 and turning negative from 2061. If fertility remains low, the report projects population decline beginning in 2051 — a decade earlier than under the medium scenario.

It said the annual rate of decline would accelerate, averaging a 0.44 per cent fall each year by 2069-2074, equivalent to about 461,000 fewer people annually. Under the high-fertility scenario of 2.01 children per woman, Vietnam’s population would still grow slightly through 2074, by about 58,000 people a year in 2069-2074. — VNS/ANNTropical depression to bring Philippines heavy rains

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