The Big Ten features a conference tilt between the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-8, 2-5 B1G) and the #11 Purdue Boilermakers (15-4, 7-1 B1G) on Tuesday, and we’ve got you covered with our Ohio State vs. Purdue prediction. Below I’ll touch on each team’s recent form and recap their latest game, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:30 ET from Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, IN. Read on for free NCAAB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
men’s basketball team will take the court for the first time since their football team won the national championship (34-23 vs. Notre Dame) on Monday, and they’re hoping some of that magic will rub off on them. They could use it, as first-year coach Jake Diebler and his Buckeyes are out to a modest 10-8 start, which includes their 2-5, 14th-place Big 10 record. They’ve now dropped three straight conference games, with those defeats coming at the hands of #15 Oregon (73-71), #24 Wisconsin (70-68), and Indiana (77-76), most recently. Ohio State closed as a sizable 7.5-point home favorite last time out against Indiana, and they obviously did not cover in the outright overtime defeat. Statistically, the Buckeyes held advantages in both field goal percentage (45.2% to 42.2%) and three-point shooting (34.8% to 30.0%), while the visiting Hoosiers were better in turnovers (10 to 11) and rebounding (39 to 35). Individually, John Mobley Jr. led the way in the losing effort, putting up 22 points while dishing out a team-leading three assists. As for the season-long numbers, the Buckeyes are putting up 80.1 points per game, which is 66th in the country. They’re making 48.0% of their field goal attempts (48th), while nailing 37.0% of their triples (47th).
Meanwhile, long-time head coach Matt Painter and his are looking to build on a national runner-up finish from a season ago. The Boilermakers are off to a 15-4 start, which includes winning seven straight games following a neutral-site loss to #2 Auburn (87-69). They’re sitting at 7-1 in conference play, looking up at only undefeated Michigan State (7-0) in the standings. Purdue has yet to play a lot of the heavy hitters in the Big Ten, and they have six ranked games over their final 12 contests. The most recent win of Purdue’s seven-game streak was a quality victory, as they bested #13 Oregon (63-58) in Eugene, covering as 2.5-point underdogs with the outright win. Statistically, the Boilermakers were better in both turnovers (12 to 16) and rebounding (37 to 32), while the Ducks held edges in field goal percentage (36.0% to 33.9%) and three-point shooting (24.1% to 16.7%). As for individual efforts, it was Trey Kaufman-Renn paving the way to victory with a double-double, scoring 23 points while grabbing 11 boards. Overall this year, the Boilermakers are averaging 77.2 points per game, which is 164th in the nation. They’re making 49.0% of their field goal attempts (22nd), while cashing 38.5% of their three-pointers (23rd).
Best Bets for Ohio State vs. Purdue
Purdue should take care of business in this conference contest on Tuesday night, but 10.5 points is a bit too many for me to lay. I think it’s worth taking a flier on Ohio State plus the points in this game. Ohio State may be just 10-8 this year, but they’ve been playing very competitively over the last month. They’re 4-4 SU in their last eight games, but they’ve lost those four games by a combined 12 points! Three of them were against ranked opposition in Michigan State (69-62), #15 Oregon (73-71), and #24 Wisconsin (70-68). The Buckeyes have the offensive firepower to keep up in this game, and they’re actually neck-and-neck with the Boilermakers in turnovers per game (PUR 10.4 to OSU 10.5) and rebound rate (PUR 51.2% to OSU 50.8%). I think Ohio State can keep it inside of double digits. I’ll also lock in the over for his Big Ten tilt in West Lafayette. Ohio State has been solid offensively this season. They’re ranked 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 115.8 points per 100 possessions. As for the raw numbers, they’re ranked inside the top-50 in both field goal percentage and three-point shooting. As for the Boilermakers, they’re one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, coming in at eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency (122.4). They’re ranked inside the top-25 in both field goal percentage and three-point shooting. Both of these teams play pretty slow and it’s tough for opposing teams to score at Mackey, which is why I think we’re seeing a low number here. But, both of these offenses have been lights out this year, so I believe it’s time to buy back on the over at a deflated total of just 141.5 points. Give me the over.…Read more by Trent Pruitt