The NC State Wolfpack (19-8, 10-4 ACC) and the No. 12 Virginia Cavaliers (24-3, 12-2) meet Tuesday. Tip-off from John Paul Jones in Charlottesville, Virginia, is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA basketball odds around the NC State vs. Virginia odds and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions for the best bets.
Virginia won the first meeting 76-61 in Raleigh on Jan. 3, covering as a 4.5-point underdog as the Under (152.5) cashed. UVA has won 3 of the past 4 meetings, while going 2-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in the 4-game span.
In that game in early January, UVA’s G Sam Lewis led the way with 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting, including 5-of-9 from behind the 3-point line. For State, G Quadir Copeland was good for 15 points, 4 assists, 2 rebounds, 2 3-pointers and a steal in the loss. G Paul McNeil added 13 points with 4 rebounds, an assist, a block and a pair of triples.
NC State routed their rival North Carolina Tar Heels 82-58 last time out last Tuesday, covering as a 7.5-point favorite as the Under (157.5) cashed. That halted a 2-game losing streak, and an 0-4 ATS slide. Despite the Under hitting in the past 2 games, the Over is 7-2 in the past 9 outings.
Virginia edged the Miami Hurricanes 86-83 Saturday, but it didn’t come close to cashing as a 7.5-point favorite as the Over (145.5) cashed. UVA has won 8 in a row, but the Hoos are just 2-7 ATS across the past 9 games. The Over is 2-0 in the past 2 games, but the Under is 5-2 in the previous 7 outings.
Virginia has won 6 of 8 games against Q1 opponents, including the 15-point win at NC State in January. This is another Q1 game at John Paul Jones Arena. The Hoos have a NET rankings of No. 15, which checking in No. 19 in the KenPom rankings.
NC State is aiming for its 20th victory. It is 5-5 in Q1 games, and it has a NET ranking of No. 26, while it is No. 25 in the KenPom rankings. It might not be a shoe-in for an at-large bid, but it has a strong resume for the NCAA Tournament committee to mulch over.
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.
Virginia (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too expensive for a single play. For instance, you must risk $100 to win just $40 of profit.
For NC State, it is a tempting play on the road. This team is hungry, and if it plays like it did against UNC, it can easily grab the road upset. But, this is a team which was also beaten 118-77 at the Louisville Cardinals Feb. 9, so it can be a little bit Jekyll and Hyde-ish.
NC STATE +5.5 (-105) is worth a play catching nearly 3 buckets. Let’s hope good Wolfpack shows up, and not the bad Wolfpack which was 0-4 ATS in a 4-game span from Feb. 3-14.
Virginia hasn’t been too hot against the number lately, either, though. While it has won 8 in a row, the Hoos are just 1-4 ATS in the past 5 games, and 2-7 ATS in the previous 9 contests. at JPJ Arena, UVA is 1-3 ATS in the past 4 home outings.
UNDER 151.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.
The Under is 5-2 in the past 7 games for Virginia, while going 10-4 in the past 14 outings. That includes the first meeting on Jan. 3 in Raleigh.
For State, the Under has cashed in 2 in a row, including just 58 points allowed, the least amount allowed since conceding just 57 points to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Dec. 31. Defense hasn’t been a hallmark of Will Wade’s Wolfpack team, so be careful.
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