World trade flows grew at a faster rate last year despite a jump in U.S. tariffs, but are expected to slow this year as the higher duties take their toll, although a boom in AI-related investment may once again offset some of those headwinds.
The volume of goods moving across national borders increased by 4.4% in 2025, a pickup from the 2.5% rate of growth recorded in 2024, according to figures released Wednesday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis–also known as the CPB–which has long tracked world trade as a key influence on the Dutch economy.
The acceleration is a surprise, given the sharp rise in U.S. tariffs. Shortly after President Trump announced his country-specific tariffs on April 2, the World Trade Organization forecast that trade flows would fall slightly in 2025.
However, many of the tariff rates were subsequently lowered, while few of America’s trading counterparts retaliated with an increase in their own duties. Chinese businesses that faced especially high duties found buyers for their goods elsewhere, while the boom in AI-related investment boosted U.S. imports from other parts of Asia.
“The world economy in terms of activity and trade was more robust than we feared it would be,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told lawmakers Tuesday. “Some of the tariffs have not been as big as some of the announcements. World trade has adjusted. There has been an offsetting positive effect from AI.”…Read more by