Siena vs. Duke prediction: Duke favored to win men’s March Madness First Round matchup [3/19/2026]

Duke and Siena are scheduled to meet in March Madness First Round action at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on Thursday, with tipoff at 2:50 PM ET.

For this First Round game, Duke—the best team in college basketball led by star Cameron Boozer— take on Kentucky, a $22 million roster undone by injuries.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers’ advanced college basketball model predicts Duke as the most likely winner of the Siena vs. Duke game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday’s matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Siena vs. Duke prediction: Who will win and advance to the Second Round?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday’s NCAAM Tournament matchup between Siena and Duke 10,000 times as part of our men’s college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Duke a 99% chance of beating Siena. Our predicted final score has Duke winning 83-56.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and Siena and Duke each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 135.5 points has a 56% chance of going over.

We have sourced the best men’s college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Siena vs. Duke picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:…Read more by Dave Garofolo