When you think of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, you likely think of Nvidia — and for good reason. The company’s graphics processing units (GPUs) quickly became the gold standard for training and running AI models, sending its stock into the stratosphere. Since the adoption of AI kicked off in earnest in early 2023, Nvidia stock has gained 1,120% (as of this writing). This has pushed its market cap to $4.35 trillion, making it the world’s most valuable company and securing its position as one of the undisputed beneficiaries of the AI revolution.
Not to be outdone, Meta Platforms just announced ambitious plans to drive its market cap to $9 trillion by 2031 — which will be easier said than done.
Meta unveiled a generous incentive pay plan for its top executives (excluding CEO Mark Zuckerberg), which would pay out handsomely if the company surpasses a $9 trillion market cap by 2031. The lower tier of the multi-tiered plan would pay out if the stock price rises 88% (compared to Tuesday’s closing price) to $1,116, resulting in a market cap of $2.82 trillion. The highest tier kicks in if the stock price rises more than 500% to surpass $3,727. For context, that would require annual returns of 45% for shares to reach that benchmark by the 2031 deadline.
The company is granting stock options to incentivize its top brass and retain key talent as the AI revolution moves to the next level. Meta created its own line of open-source AI models from its treasure trove of user data to profit from the accelerating adoption of AI.
However, Meta’s most recent model — Llama 4 — was widely panned by users and third-party developers, sending the company back to the drawing board. Since then, Meta has reportedly embarked on a new AI frontier model, dubbed Avocado, earmarked for release in early 2026.
Meta’s financial results paint a compelling picture. The company delivered revenue of $201 billion in 2025, an increase 22%. Excluding a one-time tax provision related to recently enacted tax legislation, earnings per share (EPS) grew 24% to $29.69.
Meta is investing heavily in its AI capabilities, which drove capital expenditures to a record $72 billion last year. The company isn’t taking its foot off the gas, planning to increase spending to between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026, an increase of 73% at the midpoint of its guidance. Meta is already seeing the impact of prior spending reflected in higher revenue, so the company is digging in.
The (unlikely) path to $9 trillion
Meta has a market cap of roughly $1.5 trillion (as of this writing), so its stock price will need to increase by about 494% to reach $9 trillion. The company is expected to generate revenue of $251 billion in 2026, according to Wall Street, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 6. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Meta would need to increase its revenue to roughly $1.49 trillion annually to support a $9 trillion market cap.
Wall Street currently expects Meta’s revenue to grow by nearly 18% annually over the next five years. Based on my calculations, that won’t be enough. In fact, if Meta wants to reach its goal, it will have to grow revenue at a compound annual growth rate of 43% to have a shot at $9 trillion by 2031.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m as bullish as the next person when it comes to Meta Platforms and its growth prospects, but if the company wants to reach this benchmark, it’s going to have to step up its game.
On the bright side, at roughly 25 times earnings, Meta trades at a discount compared to the S&P 500’s current multiple of 28. Investors can get shares for a song while they wait to see if the company can bring its vision of the future to life.
Moreover, Meta doesn’t have to reach a $9 trillion valuation to be a worthwhile investment over the coming five years. This makes the company an intriguing opportunity as Meta attempts to be a founding member of the $9 trillion club.…Read more by Danny Vena, CPA