Argentina Expels Iran’s Top Diplomat — Declares Revolutionary Guard a Terrorist Organisation — Milei Aligns With US-Israel on Malvinas Day — USS Nimitz in Panama Sparks Canal Neutrality Debate — Kast’s Approval Crashes 14 Points in Two Weeks as Chile’s Fuel Crisis Deepens — UN Anti-Gang Force First Contingents Arrive in Haiti Amid Massacre Wave — $LIBRA Scandal: Draft $5M Deal and Phone Calls Tighten Noose Around Milei — Semana Santa Shuts LatAm Markets
The Big Picture: Today’s Latin American Pulse is dominated by a single decision that redraws Argentina’s geopolitical positioning: on Malvinas Day — the most emotionally charged date on the national calendar — Javier Milei expelled Iran’s top diplomat and declared the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organisation. The move cements Argentina’s alignment with the US-Israel axis in the Iran war, invokes the unresolved AMIA bombing of 1994, and was immediately celebrated by Israel’s foreign minister. Simultaneously, the USS Nimitz carrier group in Panamanian waters is sparking a debate about Canal neutrality, with Washington backing Panama’s sovereignty while criticising China for “undermining” global trade. This is part of The Rio Times‘ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments. In Chile, Kast’s honeymoon is over in record time. Three major polling firms — Cadem, Criteria, and Pulso Ciudadano — confirm the president’s approval has collapsed from a historic 57% on inauguration day to between 34.7% and 43% in less than three weeks. The fuel price shock (+$580/litre diesel, +$370 gasoline) after eliminating the MEPCO subsidy is the primary driver. In Haiti, the first contingents of the UN’s new anti-gang Fuerza de Represión de las Pandillas (FRG) arrived this week — a landmark intervention in a country where armed gangs control most of Port-au-Prince. And in Argentina, the $LIBRA cryptocurrency scandal continues to tighten: recovered phone data reveals a draft $5 million agreement and direct calls between Milei and the crypto lobbyist minutes before the token launched. Markets are closed for Viernes Santo across most of Latin America. Only Brazil traded on Thursday: Ibovespa closed at 188,052.02 (+0.05%), with USD/BRL at 5.1568 (−0.11%). Chile’s IPSA fell 1.08% on Thursday before the holiday closure. Argentina was doubly closed — Malvinas Day and Jueves Santo. Most LatAm exchanges reopen Monday. The hemisphere enters the Easter weekend with Argentina having taken its most dramatic foreign policy action since Milei’s inauguration — not a trade deal or a tariff negotiation, but an expulsion rooted in the 1994 AMIA bombing and 2026’s Iran war. Chile’s new president is discovering that campaign promises crash against petrol prices. Haiti is receiving its first international security force in years. And Argentina’s president faces simultaneous geopolitical triumph (the Iran expulsion), market euphoria (MERVAL at 3 million), and judicial exposure ($LIBRA). Peru votes in 9 days. Cuba’s tanker finishes unloading. Artemis II is heading for the Moon. Markets reopen Monday. The positioning taken this week — during the thinnest liquidity of the year — will define the post-Easter trade.
Cancillería declares Mohsen Soltani Tehrani persona non grata, 48 hours to leave; Revolutionary Guard declared terrorist organisation; AMIA bombing invoked; Iran calls it “strategic error and insult”; Israel’s Sa’ar celebrates “brave and inspiring” move; USS Nimitz carrier group in Panamanian waters draws sovereignty debate; US backs Panama against Chinese “undermining”
• The expulsion: Argentina’s Cancillería, under Pablo Quirno, declared Iran’s encargado de negocios Mohsen Soltani Tehrani persona non grata on Thursday and ordered him to leave the country within 48 hours. Tehrani, who had been accredited since December 2021 under the Fernández government, was the highest-ranking Iranian diplomat in Argentina. The trigger: Iran’s foreign ministry condemned Argentina’s decision to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation, calling it an “illegal and unfounded decision” that made Milei and Quirno “accomplices of the crimes committed.”
• The AMIA connection: Argentina’s statement explicitly linked the decision to Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the investigation of the 1994 AMIA bombing — the deadliest terrorist attack in Argentine history, which killed 85 people. The Cancillería cited Iran’s “persistent refusal to cooperate with Argentine justice” and its “repeated non-compliance with international arrest and extradition orders.” The statement also flagged the “particularly grave” appointment of persons wanted by Argentine justice to senior IRGC positions. This adds a domestic judicial dimension to what is primarily a geopolitical alignment.
• International reaction: Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar responded within hours, praising Argentina’s “brave and inspiring decision” and thanking Quirno personally. Sa’ar noted this adds to Argentina’s previous designations of Hezbollah and Hamas as terrorist organisations, placing the country “at the forefront of the free world in the fight against the terrorist regime.” Iran, through its embassy in Uruguay, called the move a “dangerous precedent” and a “strategic error and unjustifiable insult to the Iranian people.”
• Nimitz in Panama: Separately, the USS Nimitz carrier group arrived in Panamanian waters for exercises with Latin American partners, sparking a debate about Canal neutrality. CNN reported the arrival has drawn “elogios, criticism, and doubts about Panama’s neutrality.” The US State Department endorsed Panama’s sovereignty while criticising China for “undermining” global commerce — a dual message positioning the Canal as a strategic asset in the US-China competition. The Nimitz deployment is part of a broader Southern Command presence across the Caribbean and Central America.
The timing is not accidental. Milei chose Malvinas Day — when Argentines commemorate their soldiers who fought Britain in 1982 — to make his most dramatic foreign policy statement. The symbolism is unmistakable: on the day that traditionally expresses Argentine defiance of foreign power, Milei instead used it to align with Washington and Jerusalem. This is a complete reversal from the Kirchner-era memorandum of understanding with Iran, which was itself voided after the suspicious death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman in 2015. The AMIA thread connects 1994, 2015, and 2026 in a single political narrative that Milei is now weaponising for domestic and international positioning.
The Nimitz in Panama adds the maritime dimension. With a US carrier group in Canal waters, Russian oil being unloaded in Cuba, the FBI investigating on Cuban soil, and Argentina expelling Iran’s diplomat, the hemisphere is being reorganised along Iran war lines. As covered in yesterday’s Pulse, Trump has said the US will “leave Iran in 2-3 weeks” — but the geopolitical realignment in Latin America is moving faster than the military timeline. Gold crashed 3.3% on Wednesday on de-escalation hopes. If the war ends, the diplomatic positions taken this week — Argentina’s most of all — become permanent features of the post-war order.
Chile: Kast’s Honeymoon Dies in Three Weeks — Approval Crashes on Fuel Shock
Cadem: 57% → 43% in two weeks (14-point drop); Criteria: 50% → 43% in one week; Pulso Ciudadano: 47.5% → 34.7% (12.8-point crash); disapproval surges to 48.7-51%; MEPCO elimination drove diesel +$580/litre and gasoline +$370; 83% say fuel hike affects them directly; Hacienda minister Quiroz and vocera Sedini worst-rated; IPSA fell 1.08% before holiday closure
• The collapse: Three major Chilean polling firms confirm the fastest approval decline for a new president in modern history. Cadem’s Plaza Pública survey shows Kast fell from 57% on March 15 to 43% by March 29 — a 14-point drop in two weeks. Disapproval surged from 37% to 51%. Criteria recorded a 7-point weekly decline (50% to 43%) with disapproval up 10 points to 47%. Most dramatically, Pulso Ciudadano by Activa Research measured a 12.8-point crash from 47.5% to 34.7%, with disapproval nearly doubling from 26.3% to 48.7% — placing Kast at the same level as Boric at the equivalent point in his presidency.
• The fuel trigger: The primary driver is the government’s decision to eliminate the MEPCO fuel subsidy mechanism, resulting in a $580/litre increase for diesel and $370 for gasoline effective March 26. Hacienda Minister Jorge Quiroz attributed the hike to instability in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. Polling shows 83% of Chileans say the increase directly affects them and 60% anticipate severe economic difficulties. Among alternatives, 55.9% preferred a partial MEPCO adjustment over the full pass-through. Quiroz (44% approval) and vocera Mara Sedini (42%) are the worst-rated cabinet members.
• The broader picture: The decline is sharpest among women, the 35-54 age group, the Región Metropolitana, and lower socioeconomic segments. Environmental decree rollbacks, the university tuition age limit, and the military amnesty debate compound the damage. Student protests met water cannon in Santiago. Trucker federations remain split. IPSA fell 1.08% on Thursday to 10,739.15 before closing for Viernes Santo — giving back a portion of Tuesday’s 2.03% gain. The next electoral test is not until October 2028, giving Kast time — but at this pace, governing becomes difficult long before the ballot box.
Kast entered La Moneda with the highest inaugural approval since polls began tracking in 2010. Three weeks later, he is at or below the level of his predecessor Boric at the equivalent point. The lesson is structural: in an economy where 95% of goods move by truck and diesel costs 40% of the freight value, eliminating the fuel subsidy is a regressive shock that hits every household immediately. Kast’s calculation — absorb the short-term pain, preserve fiscal space, and bet that Iran de-escalation brings prices down — is rational in theory. But if Trump’s “2-3 weeks” timeline slips, Kast is trapped with high fuel prices and no MEPCO to reactivate. As covered in previous editions, the trucker split saved Kast from a national shutdown, but the “stay home” strategy — truckers simply not working because diesel exceeds revenue — may achieve the same result without a formal paro.
First contingents of the Fuerza de Represión de las Pandillas (FRG) arrive in Port-au-Prince; armed gangs control most of the capital; massacres, kidnappings, and displacement escalating; landmark UN-mandated intervention; follows collapse of Kenyan-led multinational force; most fragile Caribbean state enters new phase
• The deployment: The first contingents of the United Nations’ Fuerza de Represión de las Pandillas (FRG) arrived in Haiti this week, according to EFE via Infobae. The force represents a new international effort to address the security collapse in a country where armed gangs — particularly the coalition led by Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier — control the majority of Port-au-Prince and surrounding areas. The deployment comes after years of failed or underfunded previous interventions, including the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission that struggled with staffing and financing.
• The crisis: Haiti is experiencing its worst security crisis in a generation. Armed gangs have conducted massacres across multiple neighbourhoods, with hundreds dead, injured, and displaced in recent months. Kidnapping for ransom remains endemic. The national police are outgunned and outmanned. Basic services — hospitals, schools, water — function only intermittently in gang-controlled territory. The FRG deployment marks the first time the UN has created a dedicated anti-gang force for a single country, reflecting the severity of the situation. The political backdrop is equally fragile: the transitional presidential council’s mandate is contested, and the path to elections remains unclear.
Haiti is the hemisphere’s most acute humanitarian and security crisis — and it has been largely invisible in the regional narrative, overshadowed by Venezuela, Cuba, and the Iran war. The FRG’s arrival is significant because it represents a shift from the previous multinational support model (which was voluntary and underfunded) to a UN-mandated force with a clearer operational mandate. But the history of international interventions in Haiti — from the US occupation (1915-1934) to MINUSTAH (2004-2017) to the cholera scandal — creates deep scepticism about whether this time will be different. The gangs are better armed, better organised, and more territorially entrenched than at any previous point. If the FRG succeeds, it could become a model for other gang-dominated environments in Central America and the Caribbean. If it fails, Haiti’s collapse deepens toward a point of no return. As covered in the Defense Monitor, Caribbean security is now a tier-one concern for the hemisphere.
Argentina: The $LIBRA Scandal Tightens — Phone Data, Draft Deals, and a President Under Pressure
812 GB recovered from Novelli’s phone; draft $5M agreement with Hayden Davis dated three days before launch; at least 8 calls between Novelli and Milei on February 14, 2025; prior Vulcano crypto scam also Milei-promoted; fiscal Taiano sat on evidence since November; parliamentary commission revived; defence claims evidence leaked and tampered; MERVAL touched 3M intraday despite scandal
• The evidence: Digital forensics recovered 812.72 GB from the iPhone of crypto lobbyist Mauricio Novelli — including a draft agreement dated February 11, 2025 (three days before $LIBRA launched) outlining $5 million in payments to Milei: $1.5M upfront, $1.5M upon public endorsement, and $2M for a signed “blockchain/AI advisory” contract. Phone records show at least 8 calls between Novelli and Milei on launch day, including three in the minutes before the 19:01 post on X that triggered the pump-and-dump. The recovered data also revealed a prior failed crypto project called Vulcano from 2022 that Milei had similarly promoted — and which collapsed shortly after.
• The judicial delay: Journalist Natalia Volosin revealed fiscal Taiano had the forensic report since November 2025 but did not act — a delay of over four months before the evidence became public through media leaks. Opposition lawmakers filed a complaint against Taiano for obstruction. Justice Minister Mahiques called the leak “very serious” and questioned whether the chain of custody was intact. The parliamentary investigation commission has been revived. Novelli’s defence has challenged the validity of the entire forensic analysis.
• Market indifference: Despite the deepening scandal, MERVAL touched an all-time intraday high of 3,018,033 on Wednesday before settling at 2,999,341. The market is pricing the poverty data (28.2%) and global risk-on sentiment, not the judicial exposure. Argentina’s riesgo país stands at 612. The disconnect between judicial risk and market euphoria is the defining tension of Milei’s presidency heading into October.
The $LIBRA scandal now has three documented layers: a draft contract for $5 million, real-time phone coordination on launch day, and a pattern of prior crypto promotions that also failed. Milei’s presidency is simultaneously at its geopolitical peak (the Iran expulsion), its market peak (MERVAL 3 million), and its judicial nadir ($LIBRA evidence accumulating faster than the courts can process). The October legislative elections will determine whether this contradiction resolves in Milei’s favour — with voters choosing economic results over scandal — or against him, with the opposition weaponising 812 GB of forensic evidence. As covered in yesterday’s Pulse, the poverty triumph at 28.2% and the $LIBRA liability coexist in a single political narrative that only October can resolve.
The TC still has not published its Cerrón habeas corpus ruling. With 9 days to the April 12 vote, 34 candidates, and front-runners in single digits, the window for Cerrón’s potential impact narrows daily. The FBI returned 48 pre-Columbian cultural pieces to Peru this week — a symbolic gesture ahead of the election. Debates have concluded. The PJ renewed Cerrón’s capture warrant. Full coverage. The Anatoli Kolodkin completes its 96-hour unloading at Matanzas today (day 4). Refined products from the 740,000 barrels will reach distribution in the second half of April — covering approximately 10-15 days of national consumption. The FBI continues its investigation of the February Florida boat shootout on Cuban soil. Mexico’s new canciller Roberto Velasco awaits Senate ratification while the tormenta negra dissipates. Cancún tourism recovery underway for Semana Santa. Most LatAm markets closed for Viernes Santo. Only Brazil traded on Thursday: Ibovespa 188,052.02 (+0.05%), USD/BRL 5.1568 (−0.11%). IPSA fell 1.08% to 10,739.15 before Chile’s holiday closure — giving back part of Tuesday’s 2.03% surge. COLCAP 2,280.95 (−0.24%). MERVAL and IPC Mexico last traded Wednesday (MERVAL 2,999,341.73, IPC 69,702.02). Gold crashed 3.30% to $4,601.33 and silver collapsed 5.71% to $70.769 on Wednesday — the sharpest precious metals selloff in weeks, driven by Trump’s “leaving Iran in 2-3 weeks” signal. Bitcoin fell to $66,496. Positioning taken this week holds through the weekend. Markets reopen Monday. Artemis II is en route to the Moon; ATENEA satellite deployed. Return splashdown ~April 10. Previous editions.
Equity indices: Thursday April 2 closes where available from TradingView Tier 0 charts (timestamped 08:41–08:42 UTC, April 3). IBOV O 187,922.90 H 189,250.57 L 185,213.54 C 188,052.02 (+0.05%). IPSA O 10,856.29 H 10,875.10 L 10,586.24 C 10,739.15 (−1.08%). COLCAP O 2,286.41 H 2,287.52 L 2,255.18 C 2,280.95 (−0.24%). USD/BRL O 5.1572 H 5.1572 L 5.1568 C 5.1568 (−0.11%). MERVAL and IPC: Wed Apr 1 closes (Semana Santa closure). Argentina Iran expulsion from CNN en Español/La Nación/Perfil/Cancillería. Chile polls from Cadem/Criteria/Pulso Ciudadano/Ex-Ante/El Dinamo/Radio UdeChile. Haiti FRG from EFE/Infobae. $LIBRA from Infobae/Buenos Aires Times/Perfil. USS Nimitz/Panama from CNN en Español. Peru from RPP/Andina. Cuba from CiberCuba/Infobae. Previous Pulse editions.…Read more by Matias Sebastian Lopez