Report maps China’s emissions trajectory

China’s carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak around 2027-29 and then fall by more than 10 percent from the peak by 2035, according to a scenario analysis in an interim report released on Monday at the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development’s 2026 general meeting.

Ren Yong, a member of the council, former chief engineer of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and leader of the report’s core expert group, presented the findings at an open forum titled “China’s Path in the Global Green Transition Process: Innovation and Cooperation”. The report was prepared by more than 50 Chinese and foreign experts from nearly 20 international institutions.

The report identifies 2025-35 as a critical period for moving from carbon peaking to emissions reductions and notes China’s 2035 target of cutting economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent from the peak.

The report also says a considerable gap will remain on the path to carbon neutrality before 2060.

Ren said China’s green transition has gained irreversible momentum. “Since around 2014, economic growth has become decoupled from emissions of major pollutants, while resource and energy consumption has shown increasingly pronounced relative decoupling,” he said.

According to the report, by 2024, China’s carbon emission intensity had decreased by more than 51 percent compared to levels in 2005. The share of coal in total energy consumption dropped from 56.8 percent in 2020 to 53.2 percent in 2024, while the share of nonfossil fuels rose from 15.9 percent to 19.8 percent.

China has also built the world’s largest renewable energy system and a comprehensive new energy industrial chain, the report says.

Green industries are expected to become an increasingly important growth driver. The research team estimates that China’s green industry could account for roughly one-fifth of the economy by 2035, Ren said.

He cautioned, however, that while the transition is reshaping China’s development model and creating new opportunities for high-quality growth, it has not yet become a pervasive feature of economic and social development.

China’s transition has moved beyond the stage in which relatively simple measures could deliver rapid gains, he said. Marginal costs are rising, some existing policies are producing diminishing returns, and greater reliance is needed on technological innovation, market mechanisms and structural reform.…Read more by PR Newswire