Lunch in New York Nears $30 as Restaurant Closures Mount

On the way to work and on the way home. We unpack the issues drawing attention online and offline. Beyond the facts, we look at their economic value and social meaning. Every issue in the world, unpacked!

With lunch in New York approaching 40,000 won and restaurant closures piling up, a warning has emerged that the crisis gripping the U.S. dining industry could also hit South Korea. Concerns are growing at home as well, with restaurant closures hitting a record high.

According to national tax statistics released by the National Tax Service in July, 142,557 restaurant operators closed their businesses in 2025, exceeding the 130,114 new entrants by 12,443.

The number of active restaurant operators fell 1.9% from a year earlier to 798,969, dropping below the 800,000 mark. New openings fell 13.6% year-on-year, the steepest decline since comparable data began in 2011.

Long-established restaurants fared no better. A total of 41,659 restaurants that had operated for five years or more shut down, the highest figure since 2007. Among restaurants in business for more than 20 years, 2,797 closed, the most on record and a 61% increase from 1,738 in 2021.

Business difficulties are evident across all industries. A total of 975,681 businesses closed last year, and more than half of them — 491,966, or 50.4% — cited poor business performance as the reason.

Debt burdens are also mounting. Data released by the Bank of Korea in June showed that outstanding loans to self-employed business owners stood at a record 1,095.5 trillion won at the end of the first quarter. Overdue loans totaled 22.3 trillion won, for a delinquency rate of 2.04%.

“Lunch in New York Costs 20,000 to 40,000 Won” as Closures Continue

Analysts say a similar crisis is unfolding in the U.S. dining industry.

According to Technomic, a U.S. restaurant industry research firm, the number of independent restaurants in the United States stood at 412,498 at the end of last year, a net decrease of about 9,500, or 2.3%, from a year earlier. Closures continued this year, with Restaurant Data counting 7,593 U.S. restaurant closures in the first half, including chain outlets.

Kim Han-song, head of Handsome Rice in New York, said on the YouTube channel “Gyoyangi-reul Butakhae” (literally “Please, Give Me Some Culture”) on the 31st of last month that office workers in New York are paying roughly 20,000 to 40,000 won for a single lunch.

Kim said a basic menu item at the local salad chain Sweetgreen runs about $15, or roughly 20,000 won. Adding toppings, a drink, tax and a tip pushes the total well past $20. Eating lunch at an ordinary restaurant can cost up to $30.

For restaurant owners, rising ingredient costs have been a direct blow. The price of ground beef used in hamburgers and meatballs has nearly doubled from a past level of $3.50 to $4 per pound, Kim said. Drought and abnormal temperatures have driven up feed costs and shrunk cattle herds.

Coffee bean prices have also jumped as climate problems in Brazil cut production. Added to that are minimum wage increases and difficulty securing immigrant labor amid enforcement by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

“Both food costs and labor costs are under pressure,” Kim said.

Will Only High-End and Low-Cost Restaurants Survive the Squeeze?

Kim said rising dining costs are changing how consumers spend.

Rather than cutting back on eating out across the board, consumers are selectively spending at high-end restaurants that offer a special experience or at fast-food outlets where the price burden is lighter, he said.

“Consumers are not refusing to spend money. They are deciding where to spend it and then spending,” he said.

Mid-priced restaurants that lack both price competitiveness and clear differentiation, by contrast, are finding it increasingly difficult to attract customers.

Kim said the rising dining costs and polarized spending seen in the United States could also affect South Korea.

“When the United States moves ahead, I analyze it as the ripple effects coming to Korea,” he said.

He pointed to cutting labor costs and improving menu efficiency as conditions for restaurants to stay competitive. Strategies that lower cost and staffing burdens — such as trimming the number of menu items or using the same ingredients across multiple dishes — will become more important, he said.…Read more by Seoul Economic Daily