Update on Cloud Cover for the Eclipse

2 months ago
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Meteorologically, April 8th is a long ways away, so don’t put much stock in this, but I thought you’d like to see a little bit of what I’m looking at for cloud cover.

This is the European model cloud cover forecast for 2 pm, April 8. This far out it not only could change drastically, but it could change drastically in the next model run.

This model run shows cloudy skies over West Michigan and over Texas and W. Arkansas. It’s kind of variable cloud cover from Indiana to northern Arkansas and this map shows cloud skies over much of northern New England.

It’s mostly clear over a good portion of New York and Ohio. We have about a 94% eclipse in Grand Rapids.

Here’s a graphic from the Fort Worth, Texas National Weather Service. As you can see, they are on the pessimistic side at this time.

Here’s the weather map and precipitation forecast from the overnight run of the GFS model for 2 pm on April 8. There is a ridge of high pressure from Canada down through New York and Pennsylvania. Clouds are an issue from southern Illinois (maybe southern Indiana) down into Texas and northern Mexico. It could be partly cloudy and dry in Lower Michigan.

Here’s the forecast high and low temperatures from the overnight run of the European model. For April 8, it gives Grand Rapids a high of 60 and low of 36. That’s a 24-degree spread between the high and low – a hint that skies may be mostly clear-partly cloudy at least to start the day.

Same story on the GFS model…a high of 63 and low of 36 on the 8th. Note that it’s pretty chilly relative to average from Tue. – Fri. of this week.

So, keep comin’ back to the blog for eclipse forecast updates.

Final note – the cool air will keep the threat of severe weather to our south:

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Area for this Easter Sunday. There is a Slight Risk (in yellow on the map above) from northeast Missouri to far western Ohio. The greatest threat is hail, but some wind damage and an isolated tornado are certainly possible. There’s a risk of a General (not severe) thunderstorm south of I-96 (best chance near the Indiana border.

Monday could be a significant severe weather day. There’s an Enhanced Risk Area from Oklahoma to SW Indiana. SPC says: “A widespread severe threat, with a potential for large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail will be possible across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. The greatest tornado threat is expected from southern Missouri into southern Illinois Monday evening.”…Read more by Bill Steffen

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